From Stephen Wolfram's Blog:
...today I am thrilled to be able to announce that after only five months the prize is won...
Alex Smith--a 20-year-old undergraduate from Birmingham, UK--has produced a 40-page proof.
Just two states and three colors. And able to do any computation that can be done.
...And from searching the 2,985,984 possible 2,3 machines, I found a candidate. Which as of today we know actually is universal.
From our everyday experience with computers, this seems pretty surprising. After all, we're used to computers whose CPUs have been carefully engineered, with millions of gates....(but) That in the computational universe, phenomena like universality are actually quite common--even among systems with very simple rules.
From all my investigation of the computational universe, I came up with the very general principle that I call the Principle of Computational Equivalence.... What it says is essentially this: that when one sees behavior that isn't obviously simple, it'll essentially always correspond to a computation that's in a sense maximally sophisticated
(via KurzweilAI)
Friday, October 26, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Doing homework may not be useful
... as a learning mechanism, that is.
From: The Truth About Homework:
I discovered that decades of investigation have failed to turn up any evidence that homework is beneficial for students in elementary school. ...The only effect that does show up is more negative attitudes on the part of students who get more assignments.
In fact, more hours are least likely to produce better outcomes when understanding or creativity is involved. Anderson and his associates found that when children are taught to read by focusing on the meaning of the text (rather than primarily on phonetic skills), their learning does “not depend on amount of instructional time.” In math, too, as another group of researchers discovered, time on task is directly correlated to achievement only if both the activity and the outcome measure are focused on rote recall as opposed to problem solving.
Lots of practice can help some students get better at remembering an answer, but not to get better at – or even accustomed to -- thinking. And even when they do acquire an academic skill through practice, the way they acquire it should give us pause. As psychologist Ellen Langer has shown, “When we drill ourselves in a certain skill so that it becomes second nature,” we may come to perform that skill “mindlessly,” locking us into patterns and procedures that are less than ideal.
(via Anand)
From: The Truth About Homework:
I discovered that decades of investigation have failed to turn up any evidence that homework is beneficial for students in elementary school. ...The only effect that does show up is more negative attitudes on the part of students who get more assignments.
In fact, more hours are least likely to produce better outcomes when understanding or creativity is involved. Anderson and his associates found that when children are taught to read by focusing on the meaning of the text (rather than primarily on phonetic skills), their learning does “not depend on amount of instructional time.” In math, too, as another group of researchers discovered, time on task is directly correlated to achievement only if both the activity and the outcome measure are focused on rote recall as opposed to problem solving.
Lots of practice can help some students get better at remembering an answer, but not to get better at – or even accustomed to -- thinking. And even when they do acquire an academic skill through practice, the way they acquire it should give us pause. As psychologist Ellen Langer has shown, “When we drill ourselves in a certain skill so that it becomes second nature,” we may come to perform that skill “mindlessly,” locking us into patterns and procedures that are less than ideal.
(via Anand)
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
India gaining ground in tech-media-telecom
It is interesting to see Morgan Stanley's presentation at the recently concluded Web 2.0 summit: Technology/Internet Trends:
Some noteable viewpoints from their earlier research presentations:
- "We believe investors underappreciate the capacity of value-added mobile computing services to improve customer satisfaction and generate wealth"
- "Over the next 2-3 years, we expect the relationship between PCs and mobile devices will evolve into more of a clientserver environment. Users likely will spend more time on their home PCs using self-programmed products like My Yahoo! to customize the type of content that will be made available to their mobile devices."
- "Revenue streams for broadband and mobile Internet now differ, but will likely grow to resemble each other"
- "... in most TMT markets, a handful of companies dominate the market. ...We believe marketshare leaders in the largest markets often have the greatest revenue and earnings potential. ... those companies that we believe are best positioned in the leading market segments are often, but certainly not always, best-positioned in global markets. Economies of scale, alliances, learning curves, and the skills that come with and help create success in highly competitive markets are all factors that we think tend to apply outside of home markets."
- India has moved up from 6th (2004) to the 5th place (2006) in the TMT (technology, media, telecom) rankings. Its now only behind USA, China, Japan and Germany. This seems inline with their earlier forecasts where they had estimated India to finally occupy the third place (behind China and the US) in the rankings by 2010.
- The fastest Internet growth seems to be in non-US markets with Asia leading the charge
Some noteable viewpoints from their earlier research presentations:
- "We believe investors underappreciate the capacity of value-added mobile computing services to improve customer satisfaction and generate wealth"
- "Over the next 2-3 years, we expect the relationship between PCs and mobile devices will evolve into more of a clientserver environment. Users likely will spend more time on their home PCs using self-programmed products like My Yahoo! to customize the type of content that will be made available to their mobile devices."
- "Revenue streams for broadband and mobile Internet now differ, but will likely grow to resemble each other"
- "... in most TMT markets, a handful of companies dominate the market. ...We believe marketshare leaders in the largest markets often have the greatest revenue and earnings potential. ... those companies that we believe are best positioned in the leading market segments are often, but certainly not always, best-positioned in global markets. Economies of scale, alliances, learning curves, and the skills that come with and help create success in highly competitive markets are all factors that we think tend to apply outside of home markets."
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Global imbalances and the global savings glut
Bernanke's speech on Global imbalances and the Global savings glut - an impressive essay on the state of global economics. Bundesbank lecture:
...as a key driving force a large increase in net desired saving (that is, desired saving less desired domestic investment) in emerging-market and oil-producing economies, a change that transformed these countries from modest net demanders to substantial net suppliers of funds to international capital markets. This large increase in the net supply of financial capital from sources outside the industrial countries is what, in my earlier remarks, I called the global saving glut.
...although the U.S. current account deficit is certainly not sustainable at its current level, U.S. liabilities to foreigners are not, at this point, putting an exceptionally large burden on the American economy. The net international investment position (NIIP) of the United States, although at a substantial negative 19 percent of GDP, is still smaller than the negative NIIP of several other industrial economies. As a fraction of net household wealth, which totaled almost $56 trillion in 2006, the negative NIIP is even smaller--less than 5 percent.
Ultimately, the necessary reduction in the trade and current account deficits will entail shifting resources out of sectors producing nontraded goods and services to those producing tradables. The greater the needed adjustment, the more potentially disruptive and costly these shifts may be. Similarly, external adjustment for China and other surplus countries will involve shifting resources out of the export sector and into industries geared toward meeting domestic consumption needs; that necessary shift, too, will likely be less disruptive if it occurs earlier and thus less rapidly and on a smaller scale.
...in the longer term, the developing world should be the recipient, not the provider, of financial capital. Because developing countries tend to have high ratios of labor to capital and to be away from the technological frontier, the potential returns to investment in those countries are high. Thus, capital flows toward those countries should benefit both them and the countries providing the capital.
(via J.R.Varma)
...as a key driving force a large increase in net desired saving (that is, desired saving less desired domestic investment) in emerging-market and oil-producing economies, a change that transformed these countries from modest net demanders to substantial net suppliers of funds to international capital markets. This large increase in the net supply of financial capital from sources outside the industrial countries is what, in my earlier remarks, I called the global saving glut.
...although the U.S. current account deficit is certainly not sustainable at its current level, U.S. liabilities to foreigners are not, at this point, putting an exceptionally large burden on the American economy. The net international investment position (NIIP) of the United States, although at a substantial negative 19 percent of GDP, is still smaller than the negative NIIP of several other industrial economies. As a fraction of net household wealth, which totaled almost $56 trillion in 2006, the negative NIIP is even smaller--less than 5 percent.
Ultimately, the necessary reduction in the trade and current account deficits will entail shifting resources out of sectors producing nontraded goods and services to those producing tradables. The greater the needed adjustment, the more potentially disruptive and costly these shifts may be. Similarly, external adjustment for China and other surplus countries will involve shifting resources out of the export sector and into industries geared toward meeting domestic consumption needs; that necessary shift, too, will likely be less disruptive if it occurs earlier and thus less rapidly and on a smaller scale.
...in the longer term, the developing world should be the recipient, not the provider, of financial capital. Because developing countries tend to have high ratios of labor to capital and to be away from the technological frontier, the potential returns to investment in those countries are high. Thus, capital flows toward those countries should benefit both them and the countries providing the capital.
(via J.R.Varma)
On banks being crude CDOs
Prof. J.R.Varma highlights how CDOs resemble banks in a crude sort of way. Quite an interesting discussion:
- Economist Buttonwood on CDOs
- Similarities and Differences between Banks and CDOs
- Economist Buttonwood on CDOs
- Similarities and Differences between Banks and CDOs
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